Obama’s Mideast plan leaked

And it’s one of the most brilliant pieces of realpolitik I’ve ever seen. 

http://friday-lunch-club.blogspot.com/2009/09/obamas-middle-east-peace-plan.html

Unfortunately, this can go one of four ways:

1. Both sides can accept losses. Palestinians accept alternatives to the right of return, the acceptance of some settlements which, if they’re the ones I think are considered “large settlements”, are contigious to the Israeli border and will be annexed. Loss of air control (although I can see that being a negotiated point after a 2011 Palestinain state is developed). Israel has to accept that sections of East Jerusalem will not be under their control, offer amnesty to Palestinians and accept international forces.
2. Both sides hate the plan, rejecting it for some the above reasons.
3. Israel rejects the plan. This is hard for me to fathom, but I can understand Eastern Jerusalem and loss of absolute sovereignity to international forces can be seen as a sticking point.  This seems like madness to me, but Israel has been moving progressively further to the right, and has shown it’s willing to buck international opinion, which would condemn Israel for rejecting the plan.
4. Palestinians reject the plan. That breaks down further into two distinct possibilities.

•  Palestinian Authorities reject the plan.  This is possible but, like Israel, is unlikely.  More so in fact, since Palestinians can recognize they’re in a pretty crappy negotiating position.  Signing in early gives them a good negotiating position.
• Palestinians groups (Hamas, Al Aqsa Brigade) reject the plan.  This unfortunately is the most likely scenario.  This could be nasty, depending on how much support and coordination exist beween Israel, Palestinian forces and international forces.  Depsite that, it wouldn’t be a game breaker,a dn in some ways would be the closest to the example of Northern Ireland, which definitively rejected the return to violence, despite Republican attempts to re-engage.

Regardless, this administration hasn’t shied away from taking on large tasks.  The stimulus, health-care and now a definitive peace plan for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  They’ve weathered the first well, let’s wish them the same success on the next two.